000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located less than a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico remain limited and disorganized. The 1008 mb low pressure
is centered near 17N105W with scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection north of the low from 17N to 19N between 103W
and 106W. The scatterometer data overnight depicted moderate to
fresh winds north of the low, with seas likely 6 to 7 ft.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves slowly 
west- northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the 
coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. This 
system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the southwest coast of Mexico near
18N102W to a 1008 mb low pres near 17N105W to 07N120W to a 1011 
mb low pres near 11N132W to a 1010 mb low pres near 14N139W to
14N140W. Aside from the convection near EP99, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 131W and 139W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, see the Special Features section on EP99 along the
southwest Mexico coast. 

High pressure of 1024 mb located near 33N133W extends a ridge 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and 
gentle to locally moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo
San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 5 ft within NW swell prevail across the 
area. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are 
noted from the overnight satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1 
to 2 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, outside of EP99, 
light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft within 
mixed NW and SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This will
produce moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro
and slight to moderate seas through Wed night. Seas could build 
to 8 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue night and Wed. Fresh 
to strong N winds could pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night into Wed. Consistent fresh to strong winds and 
moderate to rough seas are expected to begin Wed night and 
continue through the end of the week as northerly flow 
establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of 
Hurricane Milton located NE of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 07N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Galapagos Islands
offshore waters to 07N. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in S to SW
swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and in the 
coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered to isolated strong 
thunderstorms are occurring from the coast of El Salvador 
southward to the Gulf of Panama and offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, mostly gentle SW to W winds are forecast 
across the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica
through most of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds could 
occur offshore Guatemala Tue into early Wed due to the influence 
of a Gulf of Tehuantepec event. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week with
locally fresh winds possible along the Costa Rica and Panama
offshore waters toward the end of the week. Moderate seas in 
long period SW swell are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure analyzed near 33N133W dominates the 
northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 110W. A pair
of low pressure centers are along the monsoon trough W of 130W.
Overnight scatterometer confirmed fresh winds near the 1010 low
pres near 11N132W with seas near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds
and seas 8 to 9 ft are likely occurring near the westernmost low
pres near 14N139W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least mid-week, producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the 
associated ridge and the low pressure centers along the monsoon 
trough will support a small area of moderate to fresh winds
mainly in the N semicircle of the low centers through Mon night.

$$
AReinhart