000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 150
miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. A 1009 mb low is analyzed near
17.0N 103.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 16N to 19N between 101W and 107W. A 
recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds within 
about 90 nm NE quadrant and 60 nm NW quadrant of the low center. 
These winds are affecting the coastal waters of western Guerrero 
and Michoacan. Gradual development of this system is possible, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next 
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward 
or northwestward. Interests along the southwestern coast of 
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. 
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through the next 48 hours, and high chance through the 
next 7 days.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across northern Central America to a
1009 mb low pressure located near 17N103.5W to 09N120W to a 1010
mb low pressure situated near 11N132W to another 1010 mb low 
pressure positioned near 15N139W. Aside for the convection 
associated with invest area EP99, scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 09N to 18N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, see the Special Features section for a tropical cyclone
formation near the southwestern coast of Mexico within the next
couple of days.

High pressure of 1023 mb located near 31N133W extends a ridge 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and
gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San 
Lucas. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the area. In the Gulf of 
California, light and variable winds are noted per latest 
satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1 to 2 ft, except 2 to 3 ft
near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 
4 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas into 
mid-week. Seas could build to 8 ft, in NW swell N of Punta 
Eugenia, Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate
to rough seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region toward the 
the middle of the week as a northerly flow establishes over the 
western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton
located E of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 06N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 06N. 
Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in 
the Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the 
offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica, while 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the middle of the week. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell, 
are expected across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high pressure analyzed near 31N133W dominates the 
northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 110W. A pair
of low pressure centers are along the monsoon trough W of 130W.
Scatterometer and altimeter data indicate fresh to strong NE 
winds and seas in the 8 to 9 ft range within about 180 nm NE
quadrant of the westernmost low located near 15N139W. Moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are noted within about 120 nm 
on the N semicircle of the low situated near 11N132W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters through at least mid-week producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient between the 
associated ridge and the low pressure centers along the monsoon 
trough will support a small area of moderate to fresh winds
mainly in the N semicircle of the low centers through at least 
Mon. 

$$
GR