000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061540
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of
southwestern Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is
within about 90 nm NE quadrant of the low center. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the low center
from 15N to 19N between 103W and 107W. Gradual development of 
this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form 
during the next few days while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas 
of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next 
few days. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and also through the
next 7 days.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across northern Central America to a
1010 mb low pressure located near 16N103W to 08N120W to another
1010 mb low pressure situated near 15N136W to beyond 13N140W. 
Aside for the convection associated with the low pressure near 
16N103W, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 13N to 17N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 09N to 13N between 130W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, see the Special Features section for a tropical cyclone
development during the next few days.

High pressure of 1022 mb located N of area near 34N131W extends 
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds. Seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW 
swell prevail across the area. In the Gulf of California, light 
and variable winds are noted per latest satellite derived wind 
data. Seas are 1 to 2 ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft
primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
pulsing moderate to fresh NW winds and slight to moderate seas 
into early week. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough 
seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle of next
week as a northerly flow establishes over the western Gulf of 
Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton E of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are noted N of 05N while gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas
are in general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the 
Gulf of Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle SW to W winds are forecast across the 
offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica, while 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the middle of the week. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell, 
will prevail across the area.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure analyzed near 34N131W dominates the 
northern forecast waters. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered 
along the monsoon trough near 15N136W. Fresh winds are occurring
within about 210 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center with 
seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
north waters early this week while strengthening some. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low 
pressure along the monsoon trough will support an area of fresh 
winds in the NE quadrant of the low center through at least Mon. 
The low is forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue W
of area. 

$$
GR