000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052103
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1008 mb low pressure
located near 16N102W to 09N120W to another 1008 mb low pressure
situated near 14N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection can be found from 12N to 17N between 
100W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near
15N110W, and from 10N to 16N W of 131W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 29N131W extends a ridge 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
light to gentle NW winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell prevail.
In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are noted 
per latest satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1 to 2 ft. 
Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, mainly light to 
gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW 
swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas into
early next week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure 
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited 
shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week 
while the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low change 
of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium 
chance through 7 days. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle 
of next week as a northerly flow establishes over the western 
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of tropical cyclone Milton.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are seen N of 05N while gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas are in 
general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
Panama, and in the coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, mainly gentle SW to W winds are forecast across
the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica while 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere through
the forecast period. Moderate seas, in long period SW swell, are
expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb high pressure situated near 29N131W dominates the 
northern forecast waters. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered 
along the monsoon trough near 14N135W. Fresh wind are occurring 
within about 210 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center with
seas of 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE
to S winds S of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W, and
from the Equator to 05N between 130W and 140W based on recent
scatterometer data.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
north waters into early next week while strengthening some. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low pressure
along the monsoon will support an area of fresh winds in the NE
quadrant of the low center through at least Mon. The low is 
forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue just W of 
area. 

$$
GR