000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N92W to 15N104W to 09N120W to 
a 1010 mb low pres near 14N135W to beyond 11N140W. Clusters of
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 12N to 17N
between 102W-106W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 12n to 16n between 130W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb located near 29N131W extends a ridge
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
light to gentle NW winds, except moderate to fresh NW winds in
the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell 
prevail. In the Gulf of California light and variable winds are
noted per latest satellite derived wind data. Seas are 1 to 2 ft. 
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mainly light to
gentle winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW
swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California producing
gentle to moderate NW winds and slight to moderate seas into
early next week. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing limited
shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week 
while the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low change of
tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a medium chance
through 7 days. Moderate to strong N winds and moderate seas are
expected in the Tehuantepec region by the middle of next week as
a northerly flow establishes over the western Gulf of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are seen N of 05N while gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail between the Equator and 5N. Seas are in 
general 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
Panama.

For the forecast, mainly gentle SW to W winds are forecast across
the offshore waters from Guatemala to northern Costa Rica while 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate
seas, in long period SW swell, are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1018 mb high pressure situated near 29N131W dominates the 
northern forecast waters. A 1010 mb low pres is centered along 
the monsoon trough near 14N135W. Fresh wind and seas in the 6 to 
7 ft range are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low 
center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
north waters into early next week while strengthening some. The 
pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the low pressure
along the monsoon will support an area of fresh winds on the 
northern semicircle of the low center through at least Mon. The 
low is forecast to open-up into a trough Mon night into Tue just 
W of area. 

$$ 
GR