000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050825
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N96W to a 1010 mb low pres 
near 14N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 08N to 16N between 130W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the area. Light to gentle NW 
winds prevail across much of the Mexico offshore waters, with 
moderate to fresh winds occurring to the south and west of Cabo 
San Lucas. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except in the Gulf of 
California, where 1-2 ft seas are occurring.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of 25N and 
west of 120W and persistent troughing over Baja California will 
continue to support moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas 
offshore of Baja California Sat into early next week. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate to strong N winds 
and rough seas will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the 
middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure 
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing limited
shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of this system during the next several days, 
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week 
while the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to 
the coast of southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds are occurring across the area. 
Slight seas are noted region-wide. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S winds will pulse 
offshore of southern and central Colombia and Ecuador beginning
this morning through the middle of next week. Farther north, 
light to gentle W to SW winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pres is centered along the monsoon trough near 
14N135W, with fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft are occurring 
surrounding the low. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6-7 
ft are noted south of the monsoon trough, generally S of 09N 
and W of 97W.

For the forecast, moderate SW winds and slight seas will 
continue south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will occur along the northern
and eastern periphery of the low in the western portion of the 
east Pacific. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE winds and 
rough seas are expected to develop early next week north of 15N.

$$
ERA