000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N95W westward to 10N107W to a 
1009 mb low near 13N134W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
to locally strong convection is occurring from 07N to 16N 
between 95W and 107W and within 100 NM to the north of the low 
pressure near 13N134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered near 26N130W, a 1009 mb low is near 
32N120W and troughing extends through the Gulf of Mexico. Recent
scatterometer satellite data depict light to gentle NW winds 
across much of the Mexico offshore waters, with locally moderate
to fresh winds occurring to the south and west of Cabo San 
Lucas. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except for off the coast of Baja
California Norte where seas up to 7 ft are noted, and in the 
Gulf of California, where 1-2 ft seas are occurring.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of 25N and 
west of 130W and persistent troughing over Baja California will 
support moderate to locally fresh NW winds and slight seas 
offshore of Baja California Sat into early next week. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate to strong N winds 
and rough seas look to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the 
middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could
form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early part 
of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form during the middle part of next week while the system 
drifts slowly northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds are occurring offshore of Central 
America, with gentle to locally moderate S winds noted offshore 
of Colombia and Ecuador. Slight seas are noted region-wide. 
Moderate to locally strong convection is occurring offshore of 
eastern Panama and northwest Colombia, and gusty winds and rough 
seas are likely near convection.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S winds will occur at
times offshore of southern and central Colombia and Ecuador Sat 
through the middle of next week. Farther north, light to gentle W
to SW winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 13N134W,
and fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft are occurring surrounding the
low. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 6-7 ft are 
noted south of the monsoon trough, generally north of 07N between
99W and 115W. Elsewhere, a mixed northerly swell is promoting 
seas of 6-8 ft north of 25N.

For the forecast, locally rough seas in the waters north of 27N
will subside tonight. Moderate SW winds and slight seas will 
continue south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will occur along the northern
and eastern periphery of the low in the western portion of the 
east Pacific, and some limited tropical development is possible
today while the low moves slowly northward or north- 
northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should become less 
conducive and prevent further development by the weekend. Looking
ahead, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas look to develop
early next week north of 20N.

$$
ADAMS