000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040224
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING... 
The remnants of T.D. Eleven-E, currently moving inland, continue
to induce gale-force winds across the western area of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through early tonight. Rough seas will diminish 
toward the morning hours. This system will still bring heavy 
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the 
next few days. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala 
into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz,
Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. Additional information on marine 
impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The eastern extension of the monsoon trough remains inland over 
Costa Rica and Panama. The trough resumes near 10N111W to a 1008
mb low pres near 13N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Gale Warning in effect for the Tehuantepec region associated 
with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E.

A trough is analyzed over the Tehuantepec region along 96W and N
of 14N. This trough is associated to the remnants of T.D. 
Eleven-E. Elsewhere to the W of the Tehuantepec region, gentle to
moderate NW to W winds prevail from Cabo Corrientes to the 
Revillagigedo Islands, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and 
SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
continues from 07N northward between 92W-102W.

Across the waters offshore of Baja California, a very weak
pressure pattern prevails, producing light to gentle mainly NW
winds. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in NW swell, except 6 to 7 ft to the NW
of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, 
are found across the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E 
will continue to move northward across southern Mexico through 
tonight accompanied by gale-force winds. Marine conditions will 
begin to improve quickly after midnight tonight. Scattered to 
numerous convection is expected to continue across the waters 
from Chiapas westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few 
days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, 
gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja 
California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate
speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. Looking 
ahead, broad low pressure may develop offshore of Colima and 
Jalisco early next week, producing increasing easterly winds and 
active weather along the coasts.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate onshore winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail 
across the majority of the discussion waters. The exception is 
across the waters of Guatemala and western El Salvador, where
moderate to fresh S to SE winds and scattered showers and 
thunderstorms prevail. Seas across those waters are in the 5 to 
5 ft range in westerly swell. 

For the forecast, moderate southwesterly winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala through midnight 
as the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly 
toward the coast of southern Mexico, and inland overnight. 
Otherwise, light to gentle W to NW winds are expected through Sat
before a return to gentle to moderate SW to W winds occurs on 
Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1008 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 
13N135W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the 
low, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, 
and seas of 5-7 ft prevail N of the monsoon trough, except over 
the far NW waters, where moderate NE winds, and seas of 8-9 ft in
mixed NW and NE swell prevail. S of the monsoon trough, moderate
S to SW winds prevail, with seas in the 5-7 ft range.

Moderate to rough seas in northerly swell over the waters north 
of 27N between 130W and 140W will gradually subside through the 
end of the week. The monsoon winds E of 120W, and the low along 
13N135W drifting northward and weakening, will disrupt the 
typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N through the
weekend. No significant swell event is expected across the 
regional waters through Mon.

$$
ERA