000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E: Midday satellite scatterometer data and microwave imagery suggest that strong to tropical storm-force northerly gap winds have blasted out of the Isthmus and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, and have significantly disrupted the cyclonic circulation of the Tropical Depression Eleven-E. This has left an elongated trough with gale-force N to NE winds spilling into the Gulf this afternoon. The center of the remnants are located near 15.7N 94.6W at 2100 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Midday satellite altimeter data also suggested that seas to the southeast of these remnants have built to 12 ft in a confused merger of swell and waves from many directions. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 14N to 18N between 92W and 107W. The remnants of the tropical depression are forecast to move northward, bringing the system to the coast of eastern Oaxaca during the next 6 to 12 hours. Gale-force winds are expected to accompany these remnants until it moves inland this evening or tonight. This system will still bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N74.5W to 13.5N91.5W, then resumes near 12N100W to 10N117W to low pres 1008 mb near 13N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between 86W and 89W, and from 08.5N to 10N between 106W and 114W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 14N between 92W and 106W, from 08N to 11N between 117W and 128W, and from 08.5N to 15N between 130W and 140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 92W and 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Gale conditions associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail from well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 09N, northward to 12.5N, per midday satellite scatterometer data, then flow into the elongated trough that is now the remnants of T.D. Eleven-E. Seas S of 12.5N are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere to the W of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail from Cabo Corrientes to the Revillagigedo Islands, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue from 09N northward to the coasts from Chiapas to eastern Guerrero. Scattered moderate thunderstorms have shifted SW away from the coast, and now extend from 14N to within 60 nm of the coasts Colima, Michoacan and western Guerrero. Across the waters offshore of Baja California, a very weak pressure pattern prevails, producing light to gentle mainly NW winds. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in NW swell, except 6 to 7 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are found across the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E will move northward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this evening and inland across eastern Oaxaca by tonight, accompanied by gale-force winds. Marine conditions will begin to improve quickly after midnight tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the waters from Chiapas westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop offshore of Colima and Jalisco early next week, producing increasing easterly winds and active weather along the coasts. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate onshore winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the majority of the discussion waters. The exception is across the waters of Guatemala and western El Salvador, where moderate to fresh S to SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail. Seas across those waters are in the 5 to 5 ft range in westerly swell. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are present elsewhere across the remaining waters to the east. For the forecast, moderate southwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala this evening through midnight as the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly toward the coast of southern Mexico, and inland overnight. Otherwise, light to gentle W to NW winds are expected through Sat before a return to gentle to moderate SW to W winds occurs on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 13N135W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the low, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail N of the monsoon trough, except over the far NW waters, where moderate NE winds, and seas of 8-9 ft in mixed NW and NE swell prevail. S of the monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds prevail, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to locally rough seas in northerly swell over the waters north of 27N between 130W and 140W will gradually subside through the end of the week. The monsoon winds E of 120W, and the low along 13N135W drifting northward and weakening, will disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N through the weekend. No significant swell event is expected across the regional waters through Mon. $$ Stripling