000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031504 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 14.5N 95.9W at 03/0900 UTC, moving northeast at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 11 ft. The depression remains small and is embedded within the broader monsoonal circulation across the region. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection covers the area N of 12N to the coasts between 90W and 102W. The depression is forecast to move northward, bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico tonight or Friday. The depression forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14.5N92W to TD Eleven-E near 14.5N96W to low pres near 13.5N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 11N between 90W and 103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 103W and 130W, and from 08N to 14N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E. Fresh to strong W to SW winds prevail along and south of the monsoon trough to near 10N, over the waters of southern and southwestern Mexico between 92W and 98W, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E. Outside of the core circulation of Eleven-E, seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eleven-E is near 14.5N 95.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.1N 95.7W this afternoon, move inland to 16.1N 95.6W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 17.5N 95.7W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Gentle to moderate W to SW monsoonal flow will prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico through Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the waters from Chiapas westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the majority of the discussion waters. One exception is across the waters of Guatemala and western El Salvador, where scattered strong thunderstorms and seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail. These conditions are associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, which is located southwest of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate westerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala today as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly offshore of southern Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle W to NW winds are expected through Sat before a return to gentle to moderate SW to W winds on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 13.5N135W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the low, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail N of the monsoon trough, except over the far NW waters, where moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, prevail. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to locally rough seas in NE swell over the waters north of 27N between 130W and 140W will gradually subside through the end of the week. The monsoon winds E of 120W will disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N through the weekend. $$ AL