000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 14.1N 96.5W at 2100 UTC, moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft. The depression remains small and is interacting with the broader monsoonal circulation across the region, and the dying circulation of Invest area 97E, now to the southeast. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection covers the area N of 12N to the coasts between 90W and 98W. Eleven-E is expected to move slowly this evening and gradually turn northwest and strengthen to a tropical storm tonight, then move northward over the next 48 hours, and inland across western Oaxaca, Mexico late Fri morning. Upper level wind shear is expected to limit intensification. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (97E): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southeast of Acapulco, Mexico during the past few days has moved southeastward and become absorbed within the monsoon trough. Tropical development from this system is no longer expected within the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean near 13N80W to T.D. Eleven-E near 14.1N96.5W to 16N100W to 10N110W to 09.5N128W to low pres near 13N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N E of 81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 11.5N between 88W and 103W, from 09N to 10.5N between 104W and 112W, and from 09N to 14.5N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E. Fresh to strong W to SW winds prevail along and south of the monsoon trough to near 10N, over the waters of southern and southwestern Mexico between 92W and 100W, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E and the remnants of Invest area 97E. Outside of the core circulation of Eleven-E, seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere to Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. West of Baja California, gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 4-5 ft are noted. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to gradually turn northwest and strengthen to a tropical storm tonight near 14N 96.5W, then begin to turn northward and reach near 14.5N 96.7W around midday Thu, near 15N 96.7W Thu night, and then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 16.0N 96.9W by midday Fri. Gentle to moderate W to SW monsoonal flow will continue elsewhere across the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico through Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the waters from Chiapas westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South America. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted across the waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are also 4-5 ft. Across the waters of Guatemala and western El Salvador, scattered strong thunderstorms and seas in the 6 to 7 ft range prevail, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located southwest of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala today as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly southwestward offshore of southern Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle W to NW winds are expected through Sat before a return to gentle to moderate SW to W winds on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate SW to W winds prevail just beyond the offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico to offshore of Tehuantepec, generally from 06N to 11N between 92W and 110W. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds are noted N of the monsoon trough and W of 130W. A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 13N135W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the low. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 20N between 120W and 140W, with moderate seas, except 8 to 9 ft N of 27N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, northerly swell over the northern waters will be reinforced by new north to northeasterly swell entering the regional waters tonight through Sat. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the waters north of 27N between 128W and 140W through Thu evening before seas gradually subside through the end of the week. The monsoon winds will become well established E of 120W tonight and act to disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N through the end of the week. $$ Stripling