000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021609 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 14.9N 95.8W at 1500 UTC, moving southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are currently peaking near 10 ft. The depression remains small and is interacting with the broader monsoonal circulation across the region, and the circulation of Invest area 97E to the southwest. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection cover the area N of 12N to the coasts between 92W and 97W. Eleven-E is expected to move slowly today and gradually turn west and strengthen to a tropical storm by this evening, then northwest over the next 48 hours, and move inland across southeastern Guerrero, Mexico Fri morning. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Veracruz, and Tabasco. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (97E): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southeast of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual development seems likely. This system is expected to add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rainfall is also expected over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance of development in the next 7 days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16.5N79.5W to 14N87W to T.D. Eleven-E near 14.9N95.8W to low pres near 13.5N97.5W to 11N118W, then resumes near 10.5N114W to low pres near 12.5N134.5W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N E of 81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 11N between 92W and 102W, from 08.5N to 10.5N between 100W and 109W, and from 08N to 14.5N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E, and an area of low pressure off the coast of SW Mexico (97E), with a low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong W to SW winds prevail along and south of the monsoon trough to near 08N, over the waters of southern and southwestern Mexico between 92W and 105W, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E and Invest 97E. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. West of Baja California, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are noted. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression is expected to move slowly southwest today and reach near 14.8N 96.1W as a tropical storm, then begin to turn northwest and reach near 14.9N 96.6W Thu morning, near 15.3N 97.0W late Thu afternoon, and then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 16.0N 97.5W Fri morning. Another area of low pressure, 97E, will also persist off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual development seems likely. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South America. Across the far western waters of Guatemala, scattered strong thunderstorms and seas in the 7 to 8 ft range prevail, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E south of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala today as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly southwestward offshore of southern Mexico. Otherwise, winds are expected to become more W to SW and diminish slightly through Fri, while seas diminish very slightly. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh SW to W winds prevail just beyond the offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico to offshore of Tehuantepec, generally from 08N to 12N between 92W and 110W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E winds are noted N of the monsoon trough and W of 130W. A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 12.5N134.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of the low. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 24N between 122W and 140W, with moderate to locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, northerly swell over the northern waters will be reinforced by new north to northeasterly swell through early Thu. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the waters north of 27N between 125W and 140W through Thu before seas gradually subside through the end of the week. The monsoon winds will become well established E of 120W by late today and act to disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N Wed through the end of the week. $$ Stripling