000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 15.6N 94.6W at 02/0300 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are currently peaking near 10 ft. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (97E): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southeast of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual development seems likely. This system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rainfall is also expected over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 7 days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14.5N92W to TD Eleven-E near 15.5N95.5W to low pres near 14N99W to 11N118W to low pres near 12.5N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N between 80W and 90W, and N of 10N between 90W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 131W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and an area of low pressure off the coast of SW Mexico (97E), with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong W to SW winds prevail along and south of the monsoon trough to near 10N, over the waters of southern and southwestern Mexico between 92W and 102W, associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E and Invest 97E. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. West of Baja California, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are noted. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 103 ft, are found over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eleven-E is near 15.6N 94.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Eleven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.9N 94.7W Wed morning, move inland to 16.5N 94.8W Wed evening. The other area of low pressure, 97E, will also persist off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the close proximity of Tropical Depression Eleven-E could limit development during the next day or two. Late this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, and gradual development seems likely. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the waters from the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to offshore of Guerrero for the next few days, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South America. Seas across the far western waters of Guatemala are in the 7 to 8 ft range with Tropical Depression Eleven-E south of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala through mid week as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves slowly northward and strengthens. Otherwise, winds are expected to become more W to SW and diminish slightly through Fri, while seas diminish very slightly. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh SW to W winds prevail just beyond the offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico to offshore of Tehuantepec, generally from 08N to 12N between 92W and 110W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E winds are noted N of the monsoon trough and W of 130W. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 24N between 120W and 137W, with moderate to locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, northerly swell over the northern waters will be reinforced by new north to northeasterly swell through early Thu. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the waters north of 27N between 125W and 140W through Thu before seas gradually subside through the end of the week. The monsoon winds will become well established E of 120W by late Wed and act to disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N Wed through the end of the week. $$ AL