000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010822 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Although the system does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. Heavy rainfall is also expected over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Heavy rainfall is also expected over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 7 days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. Additional information on marine impacts can be found in the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W to low pres near 14N95.5W to 14N106W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 06N E of 90W, and N of 10N between 90W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 132W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and an area of low pressure that is expected to develop off the coast of SW Mexico with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong winds are over the waters south of southern and southwestern Mexico, associated with invest 96E, and another area of developing low pressure to the west of 96E. Seas over these waters are in the 8-9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are found west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are found over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Another area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of development of these systems, areas of heavy rainfall is expected over the forecast waters, where winds and seas will be locally higher. Elsewhere, gentle NW to N winds will persist across the waters off Baja California throughout the week, with winds increasing to moderate speeds each late afternoon and evening near the coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South America. For the forecast, fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected offshore of Guatemala through mid week as low pressure develops west of that area. Otherwise, winds are expected to become more W to SW and diminish slightly through Fri, while seas diminish very slightly. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds prevail just beyond the offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico to offshore of Tehuantepec, generally from 08N to 13N between 96W and 105W. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted on the periphery of a 1027 mb high centered near 37N141W. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 26N between 120W and 135W, with moderate to locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, northerly swell over the northern waters will be reinforced by new north to northeasterly swell through Wed night. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the waters north of 27N between 125W and 140W through Thu before subsiding by the end of the week. The monsoon winds will become well established E of 110W by mid week and act to disrupt the typical trade wind pattern across the region S of 20N Wed through the end of the week. $$ AL