000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, and extends southward across Costa Rica and Panama into the eastern tropical Pacific north of 06N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection described below is from 04N northward across Central America, between 81W and 86W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09.5N80W to 16N101W to low pres near 11.5N128.5W 1010 mb to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10.5N to 16N between 86W and 111W, and from 08N to 12N between 129W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered near 38N137W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over the northern Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the Baja California waters west of 114W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. A broad and weak 1009 mb low pressure center has developed offshore of Baja Sur near 22N112W, and is producing gentle to moderate cyclonic winds across the Baja waters south of 25N through the Revillagigedo Islands to 17N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to southern Sinaloa. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail across central and northern portions of the Gulf of California, where seas have built to 3 to 4 ft. Light southerly winds are across the southern Gulf with seas of 2 to 4 ft in south swell. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to Salina Cruz, while this light wind flow has allowed for fresh northerly gap winds to spill out of Tehuantepec this morning. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across this area in NW swell. Farther offshore, and S of 14N, fresh monsoonal westerly winds prevail, and are fueling active moderate to strong convection. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed W and NW swell across this area. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas offshore of Baja California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today, as low pressure prevails across the Baja Sur waters. Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for tropical development after that, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or late portions of this week to the E of 105W. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by next weekend. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation there Wednesday through the next seven days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail across the offshore waters of Central and South America, as the monsoon trough remains along and north of 10N. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms prevail across the waters north of 10N from NW Costa Rica to offshore of Guatemala. For the forecast, little overall change in the pattern is expected for the next several days. Winds and seas will gradually diminish very slightly Tue through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail just beyond the offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico, generally north of 08N between 96W and 115W. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted on the periphery of the 1026 mb high centered near 38N137W. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 26N between 125W and 133W, with moderate to locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the rough seas off the coast of southwestern Mexico will subside today. Northerly swell over the northern waters will be reinforced by new northerly to northeasterly swell early this week. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the waters north of 28N between 125W and 140W through Thu before subsiding the end of the week. $$ Stripling