000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300822
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N98W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 16N 
between 82W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 09N to 11N between 129W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered near 37N137W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds 
west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds 
are over the Gulf of California as well as off southern Mexico. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft are over 
the open waters off Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 
moderate seas offshore of Baja California will diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds later today. An area of low pressure is 
expected to gradually develop off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be generally conducive for additional development 
after that, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or
late portions of this week. The disturbance is forecast to 
meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the week, and
then begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of Mexico by next weekend. There is a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next seven days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail 
across the offshore waters of Central and South America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail just beyond the 
offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico, generally 
north of 08N between 97W and 115W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range 
in this area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
are noted on the periphery of the 1026 mb high centered near 
37N137W. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 28N 
between 125W and 133W, with moderate to locally rough seas. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the rough seas off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico will subside today. Northerly swell over the northern 
waters will be reinforced by another set of northerly to 
northeasterly swell early this week. This will result in moderate
to locally rough seas over the waters north of 28N between 125W 
and 140W through Thu before subsiding the end of the week.

$$
AL