000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300223
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N98W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N 
between 93W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 10N between 128W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered near 37N138W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh winds west of 
the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are over 
the Gulf of California as well as off southern Mexico. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft are over the open 
waters off Mexico, and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 
moderate seas offshore of Baja California will diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds through Mon. Locally rough seas will subside 
off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico tonight. 
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to gradually 
develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day 
or so. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally 
conducive for additional development after that, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle or late portions of this week
while the disturbance meanders near or just offshore the coast. 
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 
the next seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail 
across the offshore waters of Central and South America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds and moderate seas 
will continue across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail just beyond the 
offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico, generally 
north of 08N between 96W and 115W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
in the area. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds 
are noted on the periphery of the 1025 mb high centered near 
37N138W. Northerly swell is over the northern waters N of 29N 
between 125W and 132W, with moderate to locally rough seas. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, rough seas off the coast of southwestern Mexico
will subside on Mon. Northerly swell over the northern waters 
will be reinforced by another set of northerly to northeasterly 
swell early this week. This will result in moderate to locally 
rough seas over the waters north of 28N between 125W and 140W 
through the middle of the week.

$$
AL