000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291540
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N103W to 11N130W. The ITCZ then
extends from 11N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 93W 
and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 18N to 
23N between 105W and 108W, and from 10N to 12N between 126W and 
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 33N139W, and surface
troughing extends through the Gulf of California toward a 1007 mb
low near 22N109W. The pressure gradients between these features
is supporting fresh NW winds west of the Baja California
peninsula, with locally strong winds north of Punta Eugenia. Seas
of 6-8 ft are likely occurring in this area. Moderate SE winds
and seas of 2-4 are noted in central and southern portions of 
the Gulf of California along the trough. Farther south, gentle to
moderate W to SW winds are occurring offshore of southwest 
Mexico. Recent altimeter satellite data depict seas of 6-8 ft
well offshore of Guerrero and Michoacan.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate 
seas offshore of Baja California will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds on Mon. Locally rough seas will subside off the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico today. Looking ahead, 
an area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico in a day or two. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for 
additional development, and a tropical depression could form by 
the middle to latter part of this week while the system drifts 
slowly westward or northwestward. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation in the next seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail 
across the offshore waters of Central and South America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds and moderate seas 
will continue across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail just beyond the 
offshore zones off the coast of southwestern Mexico, generally 
north of 08N between 101W and 114W. Recent altimeter data shows
seas of 6-9 ft in this area. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E winds
are occurring on the periphery of the 1022 mb high centered near
33N139W. Northerly swell has propagated into the northern waters
N of 29N between 125W and 132W, with moderate to locally rough 
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, rough seas off the coast of southwestern Mexico
will subside on Mon. Northerly swell over the northern waters 
will be reinforced by another set of northerly swell early this 
week. This will result in moderate to locally rough seas over the
waters north of 28N between 125W and 140W through the middle of 
the week.

$$
ADAMS