153 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290214
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N94W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and
100W, and from 08N to 12N between 127W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 33N138W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough
over the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas in this area
are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
1-3 ft are over the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds
are south of southern Mexico, where seas are in the 7-8 ft range.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate
seas will continue offshore of Baja California through Sun,
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds early next week. 
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and locally rough seas will 
diminish off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
through Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form 
during the early to middle part of next week off the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is 
possible thereafter while the system drifts westward to 
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail 
across the offshore waters of Central and South America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will prevail across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail just beyond
the offshores off the coast of southwestern Mexico, generally 
north of 09N between 100W and 110W. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, rough seas off the coast of southwestern Mexico
will subside by early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough from 08N to 13N
and east of 115W through the middle of next week. Northerly 
swell will enter the northern waters north of 28N between 120W 
and 133W late tonight, with locally rough seas possible into
early next week. Another set of northerly swell will impact the 
waters north of 28N between 125W and 140W by early Mon and 
continue through the middle of next week.

$$
AL