000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282132
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N94W to 16N97W to a 1011 mb low
near 13N129W to 11N135W. The ITCZ then extends from 11N135W to
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection 
is noted from 11N to 18N between 86W and 104W, and from 11N to
14N between 127W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 33N138W, and troughing 
extends through the Gulf of California toward a 1007 mb low 
centered near 21N105W. The pressure gradient between these 
features is supporting fresh NW winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters and associated seas of 6-8 ft. Farther southeast,
moderate SW winds prevail off the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. Recent altimeter satellite data depict seas 
of 7-10 ft in this region. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 
1-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate
seas will continue offshore of Baja California through Sun,
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds early next week. 
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and locally rough seas will 
diminish off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
through Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form 
during the early to middle part of next week off the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is 
possible thereafter while the system drifts westward to 
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are occurring across the
offshore waters of Central and South America. Recent altimeter
satellite data depict seas of 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is noted off the coasts of Panama and 
Colombia. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near 
convection.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate W to SW winds and moderate 
seas will prevail across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 7-9 ft prevail off the 
coast of southwestern Mexico, generally north of 07N and east of 
113W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, rough seas off the coast of southwestern Mexico
will subside by early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough from 08N to 13N
and east of 115W through the middle of next week. Northerly 
swell will enter the northern waters north of 28N between 120W 
and 133W late tonight, with locally rough seas possible into
early next week. Another set of northerly swell will impact the 
waters north of 28N between 125W and 140W by early Mon and 
continue through the middle of next week.

$$
ADAMS