000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280818
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N100W to 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 02N and E
of 87W, and N of 10N between 87W and 106W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N139W to just
W of the Baja California offshores. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and a trough over Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula and extending south of the Baja California peninsula. 
Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
winds are also south of southern Mexico, with seas of 8-10 ft. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over 
the waters S of southern Mexico will decrease today. Moderate to 
fresh winds over the Baja California offshore waters will 
diminish to light to gentle speeds early next week. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure could form early next week off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development is possible 
thereafter while the system drifts generally westward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail across the discussion
waters, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail across the Central and South American offshore waters
through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh SW winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail just
beyond the Mexican offshore waters S of southern Mexico,
generally from 08N to 15N between 100W and 110W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh winds and rough seas discussed above
will gradually decrease this weekend. Northerly swell will enter
the northern waters N of 29N between 120W and 130W late tonight,
and gradually subside through Sun. Another set of northerly 
swell will impact the waters N of 28N between 125W and 140W early
next week and continue through the middle of next week. Little
change to current conditions are anticipated elsewhere. 

$$
AL