000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N100W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted N of 04N between 82W and 94W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
12N to 20N between 97W and 106W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a
trough, and remnants of John, over Mexico is supporting moderate
to fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula and
extending southward of the Baja California peninsula. Locally
strong winds are noted just offshore the Baja California
peninsula. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to
strong winds are south of southern Mexico, with seas of 8-12 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft are over the Gulf of
California. Enhanced SW monsoon flow will continue to advect
abundant moisture into SW Mexico through Sat. This will maintain
the potential for locally heavy rainfall over regions of the 
Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán, which may cause life- 
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For the forecast, elevated winds and seas associated with former 
tropical cyclone John will impact the waters off SW Mexico 
through Saturday before conditions improve. Moderate to fresh 
winds over the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to 
light to gentle speeds by Mon. Otherwise, a broad low pressure 
system could form early next week off the coast of SW Mexico. 
Some slow development is possible after that time while the 
system drifts westward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail across the Central 
America offshore waters with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail across the Central and South American offshore waters
through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail over the
waters from 10N to 16N between 100W and 111W. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas that were generated
from former tropical cyclone John will gradually decrease this
weekend. 

$$
AL