000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants Of John is centered near 18.5N 103.5W at 27/2100 UTC,
moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 45
kt. An earlier altimeter pass showed peak seas to 15 ft with 12
ft seas extending as far south as 12N. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 17N to 19N between 102W and 
107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 18N between
96W and 109W. John will dissipate Sat morning. Through Saturday,
the remnants of John are expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally over 5 inches across 
portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally over 4 inches 
are expected through the remainder of today across the Mexican 
states of Colima and western Oaxaca. 

Please see local statements for more information. Please read 
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N109W to 13N129W and then 
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 14N E of 94W and from 10N to 14N between 118W and 133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for 
information on the Remnants Of former Tropical Storm John.

Aside from the remnants of John, the pressure gradient across the
region continue to support moderate to fresh NW winds over the 
Baja California Peninsula offshore waters where seas are 7 to 8 ft
in large NW swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
NW winds prevail S of 29N with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, over the
remainder SW Mexian offshore waters, winds are fresh to near 
gale force from the SW and W and seas are 8 to 13 ft. 

For the forecast, John will dissipate Sat morning. However, the 
remnants of John are expected to produce additional rainfall 
amounts to 5 inches over SW Mexico and adjacent waters through
Sat. Conditions over the SW Mexican offshore waters will improve
on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle speeds by Mon. 
Otherwise, a broad low pressure system could form early next week
off the coast of SW Mexico. Some slow development is possible 
after that time while the system drifts westward. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are across the Central America 
offshore waters with moderate seas. Between the coast of Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands, winds are moderate to locally fresh from
the S and SE and seas are moderate to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will prevail across the Central and South American offshore 
waters through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft prevail over the
SW Mexican immediate open waters extending southward to 09N and 
between 97W and 113W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough to very rough seas, in 
association with the remnants of John will start to gradually 
diminish later today through Sat. Elsewhere, fresh winds south of
the monsoon trough will diminish to moderate speeds tonight.

$$
Ramos