000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270904
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm John is centered near 17.8N 102.9W at 27/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft, with 12 ft seas 
extend as far south as 12N. Scattered to numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 98W and 106W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N 
between 97W and 110W. 

Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The 
additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have
received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. 
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and 
catastrophic life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides to 
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Swells associated 
with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico today, with the potential for 
dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for 
more information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest John
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N109W to 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 110W and 
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for 
information on Tropical Storm John.

Aside from Tropical Storm John, the pressure gradient between 
lower pressure over Mexico as well as Tropical Storm John along 
and high pressure NW of the area, is supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds over the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW
swell over these waters. In the Gulf of California, light 
breezes prevail N of 29N with gentle to moderate NW winds over 
the remainder of the gulf. Seas of 2 ft or less are over the
northern gulf, with seas of 2 to 4 ft S of 28N in the Gulf. 
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft are elsewhere 
over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm John is near 17.9N 103.2W at 8 
PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 984 mb. John will move inland to 18.3N 103.4W Fri morning, 
19.0N 104.4W Fri evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 
19.5N 105.7W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 
107.0W Sat evening, 20.8N 108.6W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun 
evening. Rough to very rough seas will impact the south and 
southwest Mexico offshore waters through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore 
waters through the weekend, with rough seas subsiding by Sun 
night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Westerly swell associated with Tropical Storm John is generating
seas to 8 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters.
Moderate winds are noted over these waters. Light to gentle 
winds are across the remainder Central America offshore waters 
with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, rough seas across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador will subside early Sat night. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
prevail across the Central and South American offshore waters 
through the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 8 to 13 ft, are 
noted over the periphery of Tropical Storm John, which is over 
the SW Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 5-7 ft, are noted south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the waters N of the monsoon 
trough. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds, and rough to
very rough seas, in association with John will continue north of
09N through early today before slowly diminishing through Sat. 
Elsewhere, fresh winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish 
to moderate speeds tonight.

$$
AL