145 AXPZ20 KNHC 251551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm John is centered near 16.2N 101.4W at 25/1500 UTC, moving east at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring within 210 NM in the southern semicircle with peak seas near 14 ft. Multiple areas of strong convection are occurring around the center, with moderate to strong convection occurring within 350 NM to the west and southwest of the center, and within 250 NM to the south and east of the center. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. John will move to 16.3N 101.2W this evening, 16.7N 101.1W Thu morning, 17.3N 101.1W Thu evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 17.8N 101.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoacan. Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Central American Gyre will continue to produce periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America for the remainder of the week, as well as the adjacent western Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting, could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas and heavy thunderstorms are forecast to affect the offshore waters between Costa Rica and Guatemala through the end of the week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N109W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical Storm John and the Central American Gyre, scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 110W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm John and on the Central American Gyre (CAG). A 1003mb low pressure is centered near 34N112W and troughing extends through the Gulf of California toward Tropical Storm John. This pattern supports moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft across much of the Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle breezes and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California. Farther south, south of 18N and east of 105W, strong to near gale force winds are occurring along the periphery of Tropical Storm John, and associated seas are 9-14 ft. For the forecast away from the direct impacts from Tropical Storm John, strong to near gale force winds will continue south of 18N and east of 106W through late Thu. Winds will slowly diminish below strong speeds through Fri, diminishing further on Sat. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds through late Fri before slowly subsiding Sat into Sun. Elsewhere, mostly fresh northwest winds and moderate seas will occur across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters through Sat, with the exception of the Gulf of California, where winds will remain light to gentle. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Central American Gyre (CAG). Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring over the coastal waters from Guatemala through Nicaragua, and seas of 6-9 ft are noted in this area. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N east of 94W, with similar convection noted offshore of Panama and Colombia. Strong winds and rough seas will occur near convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue across the offshore waters from Nicaragua northwestward through early Thu, with moderate winds prevailing into the weekend. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas slowly subsiding north of Costa Rica by the end of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds will continue over the forecast waters through the forecast period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over most of the offshore waters through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the waters on the periphery of Tropical Storm John, generally north of 09N and east of 109W. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are likely occurring in this region. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted south of the monsoon trough east of 125W and north of 08N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will continue north of 09N and east of 114W through Fri before winds slowly diminish through Sat. Rough to locally very rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas slowly subsiding this weekend into early next week. Otherwise, little change is expected from the current conditions through early next week. $$ ADAMS