000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Remnants of John are centered near 17.7N 100.6W at 24/1800 UTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring up to 250 NM south of the center of the remnants. The low-level center of John has dissipated, and the system is no longer a tropical cyclone. However, an elongated trough partly associated with John's remnants appears to be forming off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Regardless of whether or not John re- forms or a new system develops, heavy rainfall with the potential for significant flooding is likely during the next several days over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. Through Thursday, the remnants of John are expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Central American Gyre will continue to produce periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America for the remainder of the week, as well as the adjacent western Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting, could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas and heavy thunderstorms are forecast to affect the offshore waters between Costa Rica and Guatemala through the end of the week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the 1004 mb remnants of John to 13N112W to 12N125W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N125W to 10N140W. Aside from convection related to John and the Central American Gyre, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 113W and 121W, and from 08N to 11N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Remnants of John and on the Central American Gyre (CAG). A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 34N143W, a trough extends through Baja California into western Mexico, and the remnants of John are centered over Guerrero. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveal gentle to moderate NW winds in the Mexico offshore waters and light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted in the offshore waters, with 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Farther south, fresh to strong W to SW winds, with locally near gale force winds, are occurring along the outer periphery of the remnants of John, generally south of 16N and between 97W and 105W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely occurring in this area, with locally higher seas up to 14 ft in the area of strongest winds. For the forecast, fresh to strong W to SW winds will continue through Fri, mainly south of 16N between 95W and 105W. Winds will slowly diminish below strong speeds on Sat, and diminish further on Sun. Periods of near gale force winds will be possible today through Thu. Rough to locally very rough seas are expected off the coast of Guerrero through Oaxaca through at least Fri, before slowly subsiding this weekend into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas will occur across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters through this weekend, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico, where winds will remain light to gentle. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on the Central American Gyre (CAG). Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring over the offshore waters of Central America, while moderate SW winds are noted off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are occurring off the coast of Guatemala southeastward toward Nicaragua, while the rest of the offshore waters are likely seeing seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 05N and east of 94W to the coast of Central America. Strong winds and rough seas will occur near convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue in the wake of the remnants of John off the coast of Guatemala southeastward toward Nicaragua through at least Wed night, with moderate to fresh winds continuing near Guatemala into Fri. Rough seas will also occur in this region, with seas slowly subsiding in the coastal waters off of Nicaragua by Wed night, and off the coast of Guatemala late Fri through Sat. Periods of strong convection will also occur over most of the Central America offshore waters through the rest of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas continue north of 08N and east of 115N. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 13N east of 130W. North of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue in the wake of the remnants of John north of 09N and east of 115W through Fri, with winds slowly diminishing through this weekend. Near gale force winds will be possible tonight into Thu east of 105W. Rough to locally very rough seas will also occur in this area, subsiding late this weekend into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through late week. $$ ADAMS