000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.9N 98.6W at 23/0300 UTC, or about 140 nm south of Punta Maldonado, Mexico. It is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are possibly up to 10 ft. Satellite imagery shows increased very cold cloud tops over the center of the depression and increased banding features coiling around the center of the system. The very deep convection consists of the numerous strong type intensity within 60 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 96W and 101W. The coldest cloud top temperatures are in the range of -75 to -83 degree Celsius. The depression is forecast to acquire a slow northeastward motion is expected later tonight and on Mon. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tue and on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early on Mon. The depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thu. Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Mon, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Ten-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Central American Gyre is forecast to continue to gradually develop through the middle of the upcoming week. This scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting, is expected to generate periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America, as well as the adjacent western Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This activity could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas and thunderstorms are forecast to affect the offshore waters between Costa Rica and El Salvador from Mon night through the end of the week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica, and to 11N86W to Tropical Depression Ten-E, to 16N107W to low pressure of 1007 mb near 16N110W to 11N124W to 12N134W and to beyond 12N140W. Aside convection related to Tropical Depression Ten-E, numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of trough west of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on both Tropical Depression Ten-E and on the developing Central American Gyre (CAG). A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to just west of the Baja California offshore waters. The related gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate northwest winds to exist over the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate seas are N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California with slight seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of Tropical Depression Ten-E, with seas to 9 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.3N 98.3W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then gradually strengthen as it moves to near 14.6N 97.9W Mon evening, to near 15.0N 97.1W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 15.2N 96.3W Tue evening, to near 15.6N 95.2W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt and inland to near 16.3N 94.1W Wed evening. Tropical Storm Ten-E is then forecast to dissipate late Thu. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in place through the next few mid-week. Gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue over the Baja California offshore waters through Wed night. Light to gentle winds will continue over the Gulf of California through the period, with occasional instances of gentle to moderate winds in the central section. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are south of the monsoon trough and across the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and tstms are over the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica due to an active monsoon trough. Strong winds and rough seas are likely in the regions of strongest convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough will change little through Mon, then increase to fresh to near gale force speeds across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala late Mon through Wed night. Seas will build during this time in mixed swell. The monsoonal flow is expected to become very active, and dominate the region through next week. This pattern will generate increasing westerly wind waves moving into the area waters. Periods of very active weather are also expected across the Central America offshore waters through at least mid week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is generally present north of about 15N and west of 115W. The gradient between the high pressure and a 1008 mb low just west of the area near 12N142W is supporting fresh winds and seas to 8 ft in decaying south swell from about 11N to 14N and west of 139W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are north of 15N per latest ASCAT satellite data passes over that part of the area. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft prevails near the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N between 98W and 105W. Gentle to moderate trade winds along with moderate seas are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, southwest monsoonal winds will continue to become well established through early next week as the monsoon trough lifts slowly northward. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward. $$ Aguirre