000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.8N 98.7W at 22/2100 UTC, and stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 11N to 16N between 95W and 109W. At this time, seas are peaking to 10 ft within the area of strongest winds. A slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the center of the system remains over water. The depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Ten-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A Central American Gyre is gradually developing and continue through the middle of next week. This scenario, combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting, is expected to generate periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central America, as well as the adjacent W Caribbean and E Pacific waters between 80W and 95W. This activity could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the area. Furthermore, strong to near gale force winds, rough seas and tstms are forecast to affect the offshore waters between Costa Rica and El Salvador from Mon night through the end of the week. Please follow the forecasts from your local weather offices for more detailed information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 16N107W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.D. 10-E, scattered moderate convection prevails from 09N to 12N between 124W and 132W, and from 09N to 13N and W of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the recently upgraded T.D. 10-E and the developing Central American Gyre (CAG). A broad surface ridge extends SE to just west of the Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the Baja California offshore waters, while moderate seas are N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California with slight seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of T.D. 10-E, with seas to 9 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.0N 98.6W Mon morning, move to 14.4N 98.2W Mon afternoon, 14.8N 97.5W Tue morning, 15.0N 96.6W Tue afternoon, 15.3N 95.6W Wed morning, and 16.1N 94.1W Wed afternoon. Ten-E will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 17.1N 92.9W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, surface ridging will remain in place through mid-week. Gentle to moderate NW winds will continue over the Baja California offshore waters through Wed night. Light to gentle winds will prevail along the Gulf of California through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are ongoing south of the monsoon trough and across the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and tstms are over the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica due to an active monsoon trough. Strong winds and rough seas are likely in the regions of strongest convection. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough will change little through Mon, then increase to fresh to near gale force speeds across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala late Mon through Wed night. Seas will build during this time in mixed swell. The monsoonal flow is expected to become very active, and dominate the region through next week. This pattern will generate increasing westerly wind waves moving into the area waters. Periods of very active weather are also expected across the Central America offshore waters through at least mid week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 15N and W of 115W. A surface low W of the area is supporting fresh winds and seas to 9 ft from 10N to 15N and W of 138W. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and moderate seas are N of 15N. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft prevails along the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N between 97W and 128W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, southwest monsoonal winds will continue to become well established through early next week as the monsoon trough lifts slowly northward. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward. $$ ERA