000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162145 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Corrected Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from Central America southward along 86W to near 10N. It is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near where the wave intersects the monsoon trough within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 104W from southwestern Mexico to 08N, moving W at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 09N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 17N101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia westward to across southern Costa Rica, and to 10N85W to 09N98W to 11N101W to 09N115W, where it transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 10N123W to 07N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 77W and 83W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 129W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana continues to move slowly northwestward across the Gulf of California, and is located near 27N111W in the central Gulf of California with a pressure of 1007 mb. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the low in the NE semicircle and within 60 nm of the low in the SW semicircle. Winds of 15 to 20 kt are probably within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle, where maximum seas are to 5 ft. This system will continue to move slowly NW and weaken then dissipate by Mon. Elsewhere inside the Gulf of California, moderate S to SW winds generally prevail north of Ileana, and are strong SW across NW portions north of 30N. Seas across the area are 2-3 ft except 4 to 6 ft NW portions. A persistent broad and weak ridge extends southeastward into the area waters tonight. The resultant pressure gradient is producing gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the near and offshore waters of Baja California, and extend to Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these area waters are generally 3 to 5 ft except to 6 ft across the waters NW of isla Guadalupe. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4 to 5 ft in southerly swell east of 103W, with mixed NW and S swell west of 103W. Widely scattered thunderstorms have shifted off the coast and into the nearshore waters of Michoacan and Colima. For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana will continue to weaken as it moves northwestward and dissipates today. Fresh to strong SW winds will continue over portions of the northern Gulf of California through early Tue morning, where seas will build to 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, broad high pressure will remain northwest of the area and maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters today before winds increase slightly Mon night through Wed morning. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds during the afternoons and evenings off the Baja California coast through Fri. Expect seas of 4 to 6 ft to persist through Wed. New northerly swell will move into the regional waters Tue through Wed, bringing seas to 5 to 7 ft before slowly subsiding Thu and Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds have shifted offshore around 15 kt across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere Light and variable winds prevail across the regional waters north of 10N. Seas there range 4 to 5 ft in south swell. S of 10N, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell there, except 2 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue within 150 nm of the coasts from Guatemala to Costa Rica. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms are over the waters of Panama extending to 06N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Tue, then freshen modestly Wed and Fri. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected through Thu. Moderate offshore gap winds will continue across the Papagayo region and persist through Tue night before shifting SE. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Wed before increasing Wed night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high continues across the NE Pacific along 145W, extending a broad ridge southward into the region, dominating the area north of the ITCZ and west of about 122W. The related pressure gradient is producing generally moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 23N and W of 123W per over night scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 135W where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Seas across the rest of the area are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 5 ft are noted N of 27N. Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the monsoon trough, and 4 to 7 ft east of 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift SW through the week, with the associated ridge changing little. This will result in moderate to fresh trades south of 20N and west of 130W, and seas 6 to 8 ft in NE swell through Wed morning. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh by Wed through Fri. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 7 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough through Wed night before a modest increase E of 110W Thu and Fri. $$ Aguirre