000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 103W from southwest Mexico to 07N, moving W at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 13N between 110W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to 10.5N85W to 11N103W to 07.5N117W, where it transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 07N130W. Another segment of ITCZ extends from low pressure 1010 mb near 15.5N126W to 13N136W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast of Central America from 79W to 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 119W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13.5N W of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana continues to move very slowly northwestward across the Gulf of California, and is located near 26N110.5W in the central Gulf of California. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm northeast through southwest of the center. Peak winds of around 20 kt are assumed to still be occurring within 60 nm across the eastern semicircle, where peak seas are to 5 ft. This system will continue to move slowly NW and weaken overnight and dissipate by Mon. Elsewhere inside the Gulf of California, moderate southerly winds generally prevail north of Ileana, and have increased to strong SW across NW portions this evening. Seas across the area are 2-3 ft except 4 to 5 ft NW portions. A broad and weak ridge extends southeastward into the area waters this evening. The resultant pressure gradient is producing gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Baja California, and have increased to fresh along the coast between Punta Abreojos and Punta Eugenia, and along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas across these area waters are generally 3 to 4 ft except to 5 ft in these areas of fresh winds. Farther offshore, gentle NW to N winds generally prevail to the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 4 to 5 ft in NW swell. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell east of 103W, with mixed NW and S swell west of 103W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 15N across Tehuantepec in the Oaxaca and Chiapas waters. For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana will continue to weaken as it drifts northwestward and dissipate by Mon. Winds surrounding this system will diminish to moderate by early Mon morning. Elsewhere, broad high pressure will remain west of the area and maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters through Mon. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the afternoon and evenings off the Baja California coast Mon through Fri. Seas of 3 to 6 ft will persist through Tue. New northerly swell will move into the regional waters, bringing seas to 5 to 7 ft through Wed before slowly subsiding Thu. Fresh to strong winds will continue over portions of the northern Gulf of California this evening through Tue morning, when seas will build to 5 to 6 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds have shifted offshore at 10 kt or less across the Papagayo region in recent hours. Elsewhere Light and variable winds prevail across the regional waters north of 10N. Seas there range 4 to 5 ft in south swell. S of 10N, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell there, except 2 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the coasts from Guatemala and El Salvador to Panama. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Tue, then freshen modestly Wed and Fri. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected through Thu. Moderate offshore gap winds will develop tonight across the Papagayo region and persist through Tue night before shifting SE. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure extending southward into the region continues to dominate the area north of 20N and west of about 120W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 23N and W of 120W according to recent scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of the ITCZ and W of 135W where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Seas across the rest of the area are 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 27N. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough W of 130W with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough east of 120W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough, and 4 to 7 ft east of 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little most of the week, with persistent moderate to fresh trades west of 130W and 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell continuing through Tue. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh by Wed through Fri. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 7 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ Stripling