000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 101W from southwest Mexico to 07N, 
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
50 nm of the wave from 09N to 16N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the northern Costa Rica coast
near 11N86W to 12N100W to 10N108W. The ITCZ extends from 10N108W
to 07N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 14N between 89W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana is located near 26N110W in the
central Gulf of California. Scattered showers are noted east and
south of the center. The latest scatterometer data this afternoon
showed fresh to locally strong winds near the low. Seas are to 4
ft. This system will continue to weaken tonight and dissipate by
Mon.  

Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail across the nearshore 
waters of Baja California where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted along the Cabo San Lucas coast with seas to
5 ft. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends into the area 
waters, with the resultant pressure gradient producing mostly 
light to gentle NW winds across the the Baja waters further 
offshore. Seas there are generally 4 to 5 ft in north to 
northwesterly swell. Light and variable winds dominate the waters
from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4 to 5 
ft in southerly swell east of 103W, with mixed NW and S swell 
west of 103W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana continue to weaken
as it drifts northward and dissipate by Mon. Winds will diminish
to gentle to moderate by early Mon morning. Elsewhere, broad 
high pressure will remain west of the area and maintain gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters through
Mon. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the afternoon and
evenings off the Baja California coast Mon through Fri. Seas of 3
to 6 ft will persist through Tue. New northerly swell will move into
the regional waters, bringing seas to 5 to 7 ft through Wed 
before slowly subsiding Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop 
over the northern Gulf of California this evening through Tue 
morning, when seas will build to 5 to 6 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region and 
across the regional waters north of 05N. Seas there range 4 to 5
ft in south swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to 
southwest winds are south 05N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to 
southwest swell south of the trough. Scattered thunderstorms
continue off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador in addition
to Costa Rica and Panama. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds 
will continue south of the monsoon trough through Tue, then
freshen modestly Wed and Fri. North of the trough, light to 
gentle winds are expected through Thu. Moderate seas in 
primarily southwest swell will continue through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad and weak high pressure extending southward into the region 
continues to dominate the area north of 20N and west of about 
120W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally 
moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 27N and W of 120W
according to the latest scatterometer data. Fresh to locally
strong winds are noted north of the ITCZ and W of 135W where seas
are 8 to 9 ft. Seas across the rest of the area are 5 to 7 ft in
N to NE swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are 
noted N of 27N. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds 
continue south of the monsoon trough W of 130W with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Light to 
gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough east of 120W. Seas 
are 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough, and 4 to 7 ft east of 
120W.
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change 
little most of the week, with persistent moderate to fresh 
trades west of 130W and 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell continuing
through Tue. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh by Wed 
through Fri. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and 
mostly seas of 4 to 7 ft are expected elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough.

$$
AKR