000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 24.9N 108.9W at 14/1500 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 30 nm in the eastern semicircle with peak seas around 13 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mostly on the eastern quadrant impacting Sinaloa, from 24N to 26N and east of 109W. Ileana is expected to have slower motion toward the NNW and NW tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W from southeastern Mexico to 07N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted east of the tropical wave from 12N to 14N between 94W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N103W and resumes from 15N121W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 88W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 124W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Ileana. Fresh southerly winds extend from Ileana northward into the central and northern Gulf. Seas range 3 to 5 ft within the central Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NW to W winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur, south of 25N, where seas are 6 to 7 ft near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere a broad and weak ridge extends into the area waters, with the resultant pressure gradient producing gentle to moderate northerly flow across the remainder of the Baja offshore waters. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in northwesterly swell. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell east of 106W, with mixed swell due to Ileana west of 106W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana is near 24.9N 108.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Ileana will weaken to a tropical depression near 25.6N 109.2W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 26.3N 109.8W Sun morning, 26.9N 110.3W Sun evening, 27.7N 111.0W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. Elsewhere, broad high pressure will remain west of the area and maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters through Mon before winds begin to strengthen slightly through mid week. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft by late Sat and persist into Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region and across the regional waters north of the monsoon trough along 10N, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in south swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along 10N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. Isolated clusters of moderate thunderstorms are noted across the Guatemala to Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into midweek. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected through Wed. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure extending southward into the region continues to dominate the area north of 20N and west of about 120W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades S of 26N and W of 120W. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 25N. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it, east of about 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through the weekend, with persistent moderate to fresh trades. Seas of 8 ft in NE swell will return tonight to the trade wind zone waters west of 130W and continue through early Tue. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ AReinhart