000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 24.3N 109.2W at 0900 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 45 nm in the NE quadrant and 30 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery and radar from Guasave show scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection occurring from 23.5N to 26N E of 109.5W, extending inland across northern Sinaloa. The Los Cabos radar shows that showers and thunderstorms have moved away from the Baja Sur but still linger offshore. Fresh S-SE winds continue to extend well north of Ileana and into central portions of the Gulf to the Tiburon Basin. Seas remain 6 to 8 ft in this area. Ileana is expected to move slowly N today, and cross near or over the coast of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday, where tropical storm conditions will be felt. Ileana is then expected to move north-northwest to northwest and weaken through Sun, running up the length of the Gulf of California as it slowly dissipates across the central Gulf by early Mon. Satellite and radar already show signs that Ileana is becoming less organized. Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches across northern coastal Sinaloa. Large seas generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These seas are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical extends from southeastern Mexico southward into the eastern Pacific along 97W, moving westward near 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N northward to coastal portions of Oaxaca, between 92W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N75W to 09.5N87W to 105N86W to 11.5N97W to 07N107W, then resumes from 15N117W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 11.5N between 101W and 107W, and from 11N to 14.5N between 123W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Ileana. Fresh southerly winds extend from Ileana northward into the central Gulf with moderate to locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas range 3 to 5 ft within the northern portions and 5 to 8 ft across the central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur, south of 24N, where seas are 7-8 ft near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere a broad and weak ridge extends into the area waters, with the resultant pressure gradient producing gentle to moderate northerly flow across the remainder of the Baja offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-6 ft in northerly swell. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell east of 105W, with mixed swell due to Ileana west of 105W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana will move slowly northward and cross near or over the coast of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday, then move north-northwest to northwest and weaken through Sun, running up the length of the Gulf of California as it slowly dissipates across the central Gulf by early Mon. Associated heavy rainfall is expected to impact coastal sections of the north half of Sinaloa and into extreme southern portions of Sonora through Sat night. Elsewhere, broad high pressure will remain west of the area and maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters through Mon before winds begin to strengthen slightly through mid week. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft by late Sat and persist into Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region and across the regional waters north of the monsoon trough along 11N, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in south swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along 11N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. Isolated clusters of moderate thunderstorms are noted across the Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected through Tue. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure extending southward into the region continues to dominate the area north of 20N and west of about 120W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades S of 26N and W of 120W. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 25N. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it, east of about 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades continuing. Seas of 8 ft in NE swell will return Sat night to the trade wind zone waters west of 130W and continue through early Tue. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ Stripling