987 AXPZ20 KNHC 140324 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 23.5N 109.3W at 14/0300 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 45 nm in the NE quadrant and 30 nm in the SE quadrant with seas to 13 ft. Satellite imagery and radar from Los Cabos shows scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection occurring from 23N to 25.5N between 107W and 110W, including coastal sections of both Baja Sur and Sinaloa. Fresh to strong S-SE winds extend well north of Ileana and into central portions of the Gulf to the Tiburon Basin. Seas have built to 6 to 8 ft in this area. Ileana is expected to pull away from the coast of Baja Sur during the next couple of hours and move slowly N through Sat. Satellite and radar already show signs is Ileana becoming less organized and a gradual weakening trend is expected Sat through Sun. On the current forecast track, Ileana is expected to move over the south central portions of the Gulf of California late tonight through Sat before beginning to interact with coastal portions of Sinaloa Sat afternoon and night, further weakening and becoming a remnant low center by Sun morning. These remnants will then move north northwestward and dissipate by Mon morning. Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical extends from the central Yucatan Peninsula southward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and into the eastern Pacific along 94W, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12.5N northward to coastal portions of Oaxaca and Chiapas, between 91.5W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11.5N75W to 09.5N87W to 09.5N98W to 08.5N108W, then resumes from 15N119W to a 1007 mb low near 14.5N122W to beyonds 12.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 81W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 122W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Ileana. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, where seas have built to 7-8 ft near the coast of Cabo. Elsewhere a broad and weak ridge extends into the area waters, producing gentle to moderate northerly flow across the remainder of the Baja offshore waters. Seas are generally 5-6 ft in northerly swell. Fresh to strong winds extend into the central Gulf with moderate to locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft within the northern and central Gulf. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 5 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell east of 105W, with mixed swell due to Ileana west of 105W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana will move slowly northward across the southern Gulf of California through Sat and gradually weaken, then become a remnant low across central portions of the Gulf by Sun morning as it turns more N-NW, before dissipating Mon morning. Associated heavy rainfall is expected to impact coastal sections of the north half of Sinaloa through Sat and into extreme southern portions of Sonora through Sat night. Elsewhere, broad high pressure will remain west of the area and maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja offshore waters through Mon before winds begin to strengthen slightly through mid week. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft on Sat and persist into Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region and across the regional waters north of 11N, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in south swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along 11N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. A cluster of moderate thunderstorms are noted across the Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected through Tue. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and weak high pressure continues to dominate the region north of 20N and west of about 113W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 23N and W of 120W. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 25N. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it, and east of about 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades continuing. Seas of 8 ft in NE swell will return Sat night to the trade wind zone waters west of 130W and continue through early Tue. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ Stripling