000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 22.7N 109.4W at 13/2100
UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 60 nm in
the NE quadrant and 45 nm in the SE quadrant with seas to 13 ft.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 22N to 26N between 106W and 111W, including impacting Cabo 
San Lucas, the southern Gulf of California, and Sinaloa. Ileana
will slowly move NNW to N during the next few days. On the 
forecast track, Ileana is expected to move near or over the 
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon 
and evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California
this weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical 
depression on Sunday.

Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall
of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, 
across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, 
Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with 
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. Swells generated by 
Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico 
and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during 
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical extends from the central Yucatan Peninsula southward
to the eastern Pacific along 93W, moving westward near 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between
90W and 94W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
07N104W and resumes from 15N117W to a 1010 mb low near 14N122W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 12N between 84W and 103W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 129W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Ileana. 

The latest scatterometer data depicted fresh winds extending
across the southern Gulf of Mexico from the influence of Ileana.
Fresh to locally strong winds likely extend into the central Gulf
with moderate to locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas
range 3 to 6 ft within the northern and central Gulf. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong winds extend into the southern Baja California
offshore waters near the coast of Cabo San Lucas eastward to Cabo
Corrientes, S of 23N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this area.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the rest of the Baja 
California offshore waters, which is supporting mostly gentle to 
moderate northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro along 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft within NW swell. Light and variable winds
dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region 
where seas are 5 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell east of 
105W, with mixed swell due to Ileana west of 105W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana is near 22.7N 109.4W at 
2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 1000 mb. Ileana will move to 23.7N 109.5W Sat
morning, 24.9N 109.6W Sat afternoon, weaken to a tropical 
depression near 25.8N 110.0W Sun morning, become a remnant low 
and move to 26.6N 110.6W Sun afternoon, 27.5N 111.2W Mon morning,
and dissipate Mon afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms 
will continue to spread northward across the southern Baja and 
the southern Gulf of California tonight and into the central 
Gulf Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds
in the outer periphery of Ileana will affect the coastal waters 
of mainland Mexico from Sinaloa northward through early Sun
morning. Seas of 7 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia 
will subside through tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region and 
across the regional waters north of 11N, along with seas of 4 to 
5 ft in south swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to 
southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along 11N. Seas 
are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. A
cluster of strong thunderstorms are noted in the Costa Rica and 
Panama offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds 
will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and
into early next week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds
are expected through Tue. Moderate seas in primarily southwest 
swell will continue through Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure continues to dominate the region north of 
20N and west of about 113W. The related pressure gradient is 
allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 
23N and W of 120W. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 
25N. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it, and 
east of about 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of the monsoon
trough. 
 
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change 
little through the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades 
continuing. Seas of 8 ft will return Sat night to waters west of
130W near the monsoon trough and continue through early Tue. 
Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to
6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

$$
AReinhart