000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 22.3N 109.3W at 13/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 75 nm in the NE quadrant and 60 nm in the SE quadrant with seas to 14 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 20N to 26N between 105W and 112W, including impacting Cabo San Lucas, the southern Gulf of California, and Sinaloa. Ileana is expected to have a slower NNW to N motion during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. wells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical extends from the central Yucatan Peninsula southward to the eastern Pacific along 92W, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 11N90W to 07N104W and resumes from 16N117W to 12N130W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 83W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 114W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong southerly winds continue along the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Ileana are just offshore the coast of Cabo Corrientes and Nayarit. Seas there are building to 8 to 11 ft. Strong SE to E winds are currently approaching the entrance to the Gulf of California and offshore of Cabo San Lucas, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh south winds are over the northern and central Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell east of 105W, with mixed swell due to Ileana west of 105W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana is near 22.3N 109.3W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Ileana will move inland to 23.5N 109.7W this evening, 24.8N 109.9W Sat morning, 25.8N 110.2W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 26.7N 110.7W Sun morning, 27.6N 111.1W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread northward into the southern Baja and the southern Gulf of California today. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds in the outer periphery of Ileana will affect the coastal waters of mainland Mexico from Sinaloa northward through Sat. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia through this morning. Seas of 7 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia will subside through tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region, and across the regional waters north of 11N, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, along 11N. Seas are also 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. A cluster of strong thunderstorms are noted in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure continues to dominate the region north of 20N and west of about 113W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades S of 25N and W of 115W. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are noted N of 25N. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it, and east of about 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through Sat, with moderate to fresh trades continuing. Seas will briefly build to around 8 ft across the trade wind belt W of 130W today before diminishing by this evening. The 8 ft seas will return Sat night and continue through early Tue. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ AReinhart