000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 21.0N 108.5W at 13/0300 UTC, or about 160 nm south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and is confined mainly to within 80 nm on the eastern semicircle. Seas of 12 ft and greater are also found within 75 nm of center across the eastern semicircle, with peak seas estimated at 15 ft. Satellite imagery shows numerous very deep convection within 60 nm across the NE semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection are elsewhere from 19N to 23N between 107.5W and 111W, and is nearing the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection extends from the coast well inland across southern Sinaloa and northern Nayarit. Tropical Storm Ileana is forecast to maintain its present motion through Fri, followed by a turn toward the north and a slightly slower forecast speed expected Fri night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Fri and Fri night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Fri night or early on Sat. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours until Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, weakening is likely while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. Swell generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. This swell is likely to cause large dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical extends from the central Yucatan Peninsula southward to the eastern Pacific along 91W, moving westward near 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is near the southern part of the wave, north of 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11.5N76W to low pressure 1006 mb near 10N79W to 16.5N101W, then resumes southwest of Ileana near 17N114.5W to low pressure 1007 mb near 13.5N121.5W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Ileana and the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N northward to Central America east of 87W, and within 120 nm of the coast between 87W and 94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 11N to 15.5N between 112W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Ileana are just offshore the coast of Cabo Corrientes and Nayarit. Seas there are quickly building to 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mostly fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of 27N. Moderate northwest to north winds are between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 5 to 6 ft in northwest swell. Moderate south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere across the central Gulf light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft, while in the southern portion moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present. Light and variable winds dominate the waters from Manzanillo to the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to maintain a north-northwest motion at 8 to 10 kt through Fri, and reach the coast of Baja California Sur around midday. Some modest strengthening is possible until landfall on Fri. Ileana is then expected to move across portions of Baja Sur Fri afternoon, reaching near 23.7N 109.9W Fri evening, then turn more northerly and back over water, reaching near 25.0N 110.1W Sat morning, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 26.1N 110.2W Sat evening and weaken to a remnant low near 27.9N 111.2W Sun evening before moving inland across northwestern Mexico Mon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move into the entrance of the Gulf of California tonight, and will continue to spread northward into the southern Baja and the southern Gulf of California into early Fri. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds in the outer periphery of Ileana will affect the coastal waters of mainland Mexico from Sinaloa northward late tonight through Sat. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia through early Fri. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia will subside early on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds prevail over the Papagayo region, and across the regional waters north of 11N, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough, along 11N. Seas are also 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure remains present north of 20N and west of about 113W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades over this part of the region. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it and east of about 104W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through Sat, with moderate to fresh trades continuing. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ Stripling