000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana is centered near 19.9N 108.0W at 12/2100 UTC, or about 255 nm south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas moving north- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery reveals that very deep convection of the numerous strong type has been increasing during the day. This convection extends from 180 nm from the center in the SW semicircle and 90 nm from center in the NE semIcircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Tropical Storm Ileana is forecast to maintain its present motion through Fri, followed by a turn toward the north and a slightly slower forecast speed expected Fri night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Fri and Fri night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Fri night or early on Sat. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours until Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is possible while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Ileana NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical extends from the central Yucatan Peninsula southward to the eastern Pacific along 89W. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the southern part of the wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia west- northwestward to across southern Honduras and to 12N86W to 15N92W to 16N102W. It resumes southwest of Ileana near 17N111W and continues to low pressure of 1011 mb near 14N122W and to 12N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Tropical Storm Ileana and the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 117W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong east to southeast winds on the periphery of recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana re just offshore the coast of Nayarit while fresh to strong southeast to south winds are along and within about 120 nm offshore Jalisco. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mostly fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of 29N. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Gulf light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except in the southern portion where moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present. Light and variable winds dominate the Tehuantepec region where seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ileana is near 19.2N 107.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Ileana will move to near 21.1N 108.8W late tonight, to near 22.7N 109.7W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, then inland southern Baja California near 24.1N 110.1W late Fri night, back over water near 25.3N 110.1W Sat afternoon, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 26.3N 110.2W late Sat night and weaken to a remnant low near 27.2N 110.5W Sun afternoon and continue inland northwestern Mexico Mon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving into the entrance of the Gulf of California, and will continue to spread northward into the southern Gulf of California into early Fri. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds in the outer periphery of Ileana are affecting the Las Marias islands and waters just offshore Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia through early Fri. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia will subside early on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are over the Papagayo region along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are also 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell south of the trough. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure remains present north of 20N and west of about 125W. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeast trades over this part of the region as were depicted in a recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas over this part of the area are 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it and east of about 104W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will change little through Sat, with moderate to fresh trades continuing. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds and mostly seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. $$ Aguirre