000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is noted within 180 nm SW semicircle of low center.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days while the system moves slowly
northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward
the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in 
the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system. Currently, this system has a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and also 
through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about 
this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a western Caribbean tropical wave extends
southward along 87W to near 07N. It is moving westward near 10 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the
wave axis from 07N to 13N between 83W and 88W. 

A tropical wave, associated with the broad low pressure system 
as described above, has its axis along 107W from 09N to 20N.
Aside from the convection described above in the Special 
Features section, scattered moderate convection to isolated
strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 103W and 
109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends near the coasts of northern
Central America and SE Mexico from 11N86W to 1004 mb low 
pressure located near 18N107W to 11N130W. The ITCZ extends from 
11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated 
with the tropical waves and low pressure, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 115W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are along and within
about 90 nm offshore the coasts of southern Jalisco, Colima and 
Michoacan associated with the broad area of low pressure 
described above under Special Features. High pressure dominates 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting 
moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo 
San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds 
between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft
due to south swell. Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to
moderate southerly winds over the northern part of the Gulf of
California where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere
across the remainder of the Gulf light to gentle winds prevail
with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light and variable winds dominate the 
Tehuantepec region. 

For the forecast, as the broad area of low pressure located a 
couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
develops, expect increasing winds and building seas across the 
offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes 
today. There marine conditions are expected to spread across the 
waters between Las Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands later 
today, possible reaching Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf 
of California tonight into Fri. Elsewhere, a tightening pressure 
gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and deepening 
pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate to
fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia 
through early Fri. Seas will briefly build to 8 to 9 ft in NW 
swell N of Punta Eugenia today and tonight. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle NE winds are over the Papagayo region along with seas of 
4 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough
while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft 
in south to southwest swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds 
will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of 
the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are 
expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will 
continue through the period, with the highest seas of 6 to 7 ft 
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama, and
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the mon soon trough
and west of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is
noted under the influence of this system with an area of mainly 
fresh northeast winds from 15N to 20N west of 135W as noted in 
recent satellite derived wind data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with 
these winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly 
moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon 
trough, with light to gentle winds north of it to near 15N to 18N
and west of 110W. 
 
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the northern
forecast waters the remainder of the week producing moderate to
locally fresh winds through Fri. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
and seas of 6 to 9 are expected S of the monsoon trough roughly 
between 100W and 125W today and tonight.

$$
GR