000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad low pressure system continues to produce a large area of disorganized numerous strong convection from 16N to 19N between 107W and 110W and scattered moderate convection from 17N to 18N between 102W and 105W. Environmental conditions appear conducive conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and also through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave, associated with the broad low pressure system as described above, has its axis along 105W from 08N to 19N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 16N105W and and of 11N105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 11N85W to 17N100W to low pressure near 18N105W 1007 mb to 15N116W to low pressure near 13N123W 1007 mb to 11N130W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 77W and 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 15N between 106W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 122W and 125W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 122W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are along and within 60 nm offshore the coasts of southern Jalisco, Michoacan and northern Guerrero associated with the broad area of low pressure described above under Special Features. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft due to south swell. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the central and southern Gulf of California out of this system beginning Thu. Elsewhere, a tightening surface pressure gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia through Thu night, with rough seas on Thu. Conditions improving afterward. Farther south, a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north- northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Please see the Special Features section for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle northeast to east winds are over the Papagayo region and downwind to near 87W with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south f the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily SW swell will continue through the period, with the highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of about west of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system with an area of fresh NE winds from 20N to 23N between 127W and 135W based on satellite derived wind data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds N of it to 20N and E of 120W. For the forecast, fresh SW winds and building seas are expected south f the monsoon trough roughly between 100W and 115W today. As low pressure, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone, develops expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico on Thu, and across the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build north of 20N and west of 120W, with its associated gradient supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas through Fri. $$ Aguirre