000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110912
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms from the coast of southwestern Mexico 
extending offshore for several hundred miles. Scatterometer data
show a broad area of low pressure WSW off the coast of Michoacan.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the 
latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California
Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across
coastal portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico during
the next couple of days. Currently, this system has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and also in the
next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 107W from 05N to 19N, moving west at
about 10  kt. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are near
the northern end of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 17N104W to 14N120W to  
11N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is 
near the entrance to the Gulf of Panama. Similar convective 
activity is also noted within about 90 nm of the coast of SW 
Mexico, roughly between Guerrero and Jalisco, including the 
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes and the Maria Islands.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data indicate fresh SE to S winds near the coasts
of Colima, Jalisco and southern Nayarit likely associated with
the convective activity previously described in that area. A ridge
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro with
seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San
Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a tightening surface pressure gradient between
high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern 
Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas 
in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia through Thu night, with rough 
seas on Thu. 

Farther south, a tropical depression could form during the latter
part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja 
California Peninsula. Please, see the Special Features section 
for more details. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds
across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 87W with seas of
4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of 
the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are N of it. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
through much of the week south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in
primarily SW swell will continue through this week, with the 
highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 115W.
Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the
influence of this system with an area of fresh NE winds from 20N
to 23N between 127W and 135W based on satellite derived wind
data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft
are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate SW to W winds prevail S of
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds N of it to 20N 
and E of 120W. 
 
For the forecast, fresh SW winds and building seas are expected 
S of the monsoon trough roughly between 100W and 115W today. As 
a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, develops expect 
increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of 
SW Mexico on Thu, and across the waters between Cabo Corrientes 
and Los Cabos Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, surface ridging 
will continue to build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting 
moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas through much of 
this week. 

$$
GR