000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110309
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms from the coast of southwestern Mexico 
extending offshore for several hundred miles. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter 
part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja 
California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall 
is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-
central Mexico during the next couple of days. Currently, this 
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the 
next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more information about this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 106W from 05N to 19N, drifting west at 
5 kt. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are near the
northern end of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N80W to 10N91W to 16N105W to a
1011 mb low pressure center near 12N125W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 93W and 
125W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are in the 
vicinity of Cabo Corriente, mainly from 19N to 22N E of 106W to 
the coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer data confirmed the presence of fresh to strong
SE winds along the coast of the Mexican state of Guerrero. These
winds are funneling between the mountainous coastal terrain and 
a the monsoon trough extending along 15N-16N in this area. Weak 
ridging elsewhere is support gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas over the offshore waters, except for light winds and slight
seas over the Gulf of California and across the waters between 
Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, a tightening surface pressure gradient between
high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern 
Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas 
in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Thu night, with 
rough seas on Thu. 

Farther south, a tropical depression could form during the latter 
part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja 
California Peninsula. Please, see the Special Features section
for more details. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds
across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 87W with seas of
4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle SW to W winds are seen S 
of the monsoon trough that now crosses near 10N90W. Seas are 4 
to 6 ft in SW swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
through much of the week south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in
primarily SW swell will continue through this week, with the 
highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

South of the monsoon trough, earlier scatterometer and altimeter
data indicated an area of fresh SW to W winds with seas of 8 to 
9 ft roughly from 07N to 12N between 100W and 120W. N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 120W, under the influence of a ridge, 
gentle to moderate winds are noted with an area of moderate to 
fresh NE winds from 20N to 25N between 120W and 130W, noted in 
scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these wind speeds.
Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and moderate seas in mixed NW
and SW swell are observed. 
 
For the forecast, fresh SW winds and building seas are expected 
S of the monsoon trough roughly between 100W and 115W on Wed. As
a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, develops expect
increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of
SW Mexico on Thu, and across the waters between Cabo Corrientes
and Los Cabos Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile surface ridging
will build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft trough through much of this 
week. 

$$
GR