000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 105W from 05N to 18N, drifting west at 
5 kt. Associated convection is described below in the 
ITCZ/Monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N105W to a 1010 mb 
low pressure center near 12N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection can be found within 180 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 80W and 105W, and within 240 nm north of
the monsoon trough between 105W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh
to strong SE winds along the coast of the Mexican state of
Guerrero. These winds are funneling between the mountainous 
coastal terrain and a sharp monsoon trough extended parallel to 
the coast a little farther offshore. Similar winds may be
occurring along the coast of nearby Michoacan. Associated
combined seas are likely near 7 ft. A few showers may be active 
also in this area, following the passage of a tropical wave to 
the west. Weak ridging elsewhere is support gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas over the offshore waters, except for 
light breezes and slight seas over the Gulf of California and 
across the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, A tightening surface pressure gradient between high 
pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern Mexico 
will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in NW 
swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Thu night, with rough 
seas on Thu. 

Farther south, an area of low pressure is forecast 
to form during the next day or two, anywhere along the monsoon 
trough from off the coast of Guerrero to the waters between the 
Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter 
part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California. Currently,
this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in 
the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains farther north crossing near the 
coasts of northern Central America and SE Mexico. Earlier 
scatterometer data indicate light to gentle SW to W winds S of 
the monsoon. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
through much of the week south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in
primarily SW swell will continue through this week, with the 
highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

South of the monsoon trough, earlier scatterometer and altimeter
data indicated an area of fresh SW to W winds with seas of 8 to 
9 ft roughly from 07N to 14N between 100W and 120W. N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 120W, under the influence of a ridge, 
gentle to moderate winds are noted with an area of moderate to 
fresh NE winds from 20N to 25N between 120W and 130W, noted in
recent scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these wind 
speeds. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
mixed NW and SW swell are observed. 
 
For the forecast, SW winds will increase through mid week with 
building seas north of 10N between 105W and 120W related to the 
lowering pressure off southwest Mexico. Meanwhile surface ridging
will build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft trough through much of this 
week. 

$$
Christensen