000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101548
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 104W from 05N to 18n, drifting west at 
5 kt. Associated convection is described below in the 
ITCZ/Monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 15N100W to a 1007 mb 
low pressure center near 12N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to
08N east of 80W, and from 09N to 12N between 85W and 95W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 100W and
105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE winds along with associated combined seas to 7 ft are 
evident off the coasts of the Mexican states of Guerrero and 
Michoacan this morning. These winds are funneling between the
mountainous coastal terrain and a sharp monsoon trough extended
parallel to the coast a little farther offshore. A few showers
may be active also in this area, following the passage of a
tropical wave to the west. Weak ridging elsewhere is support 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas over the offshore 
waters, except for light breezes and slight seas over the Gulf of
California and across the waters between Cabo Corrientes and 
Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, A tightening surface pressure gradient between high 
pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern Mexico 
will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in NW 
swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Thu night, with rough 
seas on Thu. 

Farther south, an area of low pressure is forecast 
to form during the next day or two, anywhere along the monsoon 
trough from off the coast of Guerrero to the waters between the 
Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter 
part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California. Currently,
this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in 
the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough has moved farther north crossing near the 
coasts of northern Central America and SE Mexico. Recent 
scatterometer data indicate light to gentle SW to W winds S of 
the monsoon. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. A cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is affecting the regional
waters of El Salvador and the entrance to the Gulf of Fonseca. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
through much of the week south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in
primarily SW swell will continue through this week, with the 
highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

South of the monsoon trough, overnight scatterometer and 
altimeter data indicated an area of fresh SW to W winds with seas
of 8 to 9 ft roughly from 07N to 14N between 100W and 120W. N of
the monsoon trough and W of 120W, under the influence of a 
ridge, gentle to moderate winds are noted with an area of 
moderate to fresh NE winds from 20N to 25N between 120W and 
130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these wind speeds. Elsewhere, 
light to moderate winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW 
swell are observed. 
 
For the forecast, SW winds will increase through mid week with 
building seas north of 10N between 105W and 120W related to the 
lowering pressure off southwest Mexico. Meanwhile surface ridging
will build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft trough through much of this 
week. 

$$
Christensen