346 
AXPZ20 KNHC 100835
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 102W/103W from 07N to inland over SW 
Mexico, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is 
described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N100W to a 1010 mb 
low pressure center near 12N127W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 
15N between 100W and 115W, and within about 45 nm of the coasts 
of Guerrero and Michoacan in Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California supporting light to gentle NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro, and light and variable winds between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light 
and variable winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California.
Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are seen across the 
regional waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero where seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are noted. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light 
and variable winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed NW and SW
swell. 

For the forecast, pressure will probably continue to lower over
the region between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands
through mid week as the tropical wave continues to move westward.
This pattern will support fresh SW winds and building seas off 
Jalisco and Colima Wed into Thu. These marine conditions could
spread across the waters between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos,
including the entrance to the Gulf of California on Thu. Looking
ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form during the 
middle part of the week, just to the south of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week
while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Currently, this system has a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a medium 
chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
information about this system.

Farther north, a tightening surface pressure gradient between high
pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern Mexico
will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in NW
swell N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Thu night, with rough 
seas on Thu. Farther south, between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San 
Lazaro expect moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas Wed 
through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough has moved farther north crossing near the 
coasts of northern Central America and SE Mexico. Recent 
scatterometer data indicate light to gentle SW to W winds S of 
the monsoon. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. A cluster of
moderate to isolated strong convection is affecting the regional
waters of El Salvador and the entrance to the Gulf of Fonseca. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
through much of the week south of the monsoon trough. North of 
the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in
primarily SW swell will continue through this week, with the 
highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

South of the monsoon trough, scatterometer and altimeter data 
indicate an area of fresh SW to W winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft 
roughly from 07N to 12N between 105W and 113W. N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 120W, under the influence of a ridge, gentle to 
moderate winds are noted with an area of moderate to fresh NE 
winds from 21N to 26N between 120W and 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
within these wind speeds. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds  
and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell are observed. 
 
For the forecast, SW winds will increase through mid week with 
building seas north of 10N between 105W and 120W related to the 
lowering pressure off southwest Mexico. Meanwhile surface ridging
will build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft trough through much of this 
week. 

$$
GR