000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 95W from 07N to far southeastern Mexico, drifting west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W a 1007 mb low pressure near 19N110W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 14N130W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 90W and 106W, and from 15N to 22N between 103W and 113W. Widely scattered convection is noted from 11N to 13N west of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough across Baja California is flanked by high pressure over the Baja California offshore waters and ridging over north-central Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict light to moderate winds across much of the waters, with local areas of fresh NW winds north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in predominantly NW swell in the Baja California offshore waters, and in generally SW swell south of Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are occurring in central and northern portions of the Gulf of California. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with accompanying seas of 5 to 6 ft. Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher seas are occurring offshore of Mazatlan southward through Guerrero, as well as in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a tightening surface pressure gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas over the Baja California offshore waters Tue through Thu night. Meanwhile, N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon morning with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to middle part of the week, near or just to the south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a LOW chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a MEDIUM chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data show prevailing gentle to moderate S to SW breezes south of the monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds farther north. Seas remain around 4-6 ft in mixed S swell. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher seas are occurring off the coast of Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue through much of the upcoming week south of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh winds possible Wed into Thu. North of the trough, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Moderate seas in mixed S swell will continue through this week. Locally rough seas could develop offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon into Tue as an area of low pressure forms near or just south of the coast of southern Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 15N and 130W. This pattern supports light winds just south of the ridge axis, N of 25N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail north of the monsoon trough to 31N and E of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in predominantly NW swell continue in this area. Fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of a low pressure near 14N130W, and seas of 6 to 8 ft are likely occurring. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed S swell are noted. For the forecast, surface ridging will build north of 20N and west of 120W, promoting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of the monsoon trough through much of this week. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas look to develop east of 120W as an area of low pressure forms near or just south of the coast of southern Mexico. $$ ADAMS