000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080929
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 94W north of 11N to far southeastern 
Mexico, moving west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 92W and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 17N113W to a 1010 mb
low pressure near 13N131W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 20N between
80W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
14N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore 
waters while weak troughing extends over the Gulf of California. 
This pattern supports light to gentle NW breezes and seas of 4 to
6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California offshore waters 
waters. The Gulf of California also has light to gentle breezes 
with 1 to 3 ft seas with 4 ft closer to the entrance of the Gulf.
Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate N winds occurring 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are 
occurring across the rest of the southern Mexico offshore waters.
Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and locally 
higher seas are occurring near Cabo Corrientes southward to 
Oaxaca.

For the forecast, a tightening surface pressure gradient between
high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern
Mexico is expected in a few days. This will support moderate to 
fresh NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell over the Baja 
California offshore waters Tue through Thu night. Meanwhile, N 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through  
Mon morning with seas near 8 ft as high pressure building to the
north over Mexico.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
during the early to middle part of next week, near or just to the
south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form during the middle to latter part of next week while it
moves generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Overnight scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds south of the monsoon trough with seas 4 to 6 ft in S to SW
swell. North of the trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 
4 to 6 ft prevail. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing 
gusty winds and locally higher seas are occurring off the coast 
of Nicaragua southeastward through NW Colombia, including the
Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 
moderate seas will continue south of the monsoon trough today,
and return Wed into Thu. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas will prevail farther north through Mon night, with light to
gentle winds expected Tue through Thu night. Moderate to rough 
seas could develop off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador by
Monday as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form off 
the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 15N 
and 125W. This pattern supports light winds right under the
ridge, N of 25N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are
noted north of the monsoon trough to 31N and E of 125W. Seas of 
4 to 7 ft in predominantly NW swell are noted in this area. Along
the monsoon trough, a low pressure near 13N130W likely has
fresh winds in the vicinity. An area of swell with seas 7 to 9 ft
is located near the low and to 140W. South of the monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds prevail with seas of 5 
to 7 ft within mixed S swell.
 
For the forecast, the area of swell producing seas to 9 ft will
subside by tonight, with the fresh winds near the low diminishing
by today. Meanwhile, surface ridging will build north of 20N and
west of 120W, promoting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft north of the monsoon trough through at least Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas look to develop east of
120W as an area of low pressure forms off the coast of southern 
or southwestern Mexico in the early to middle part of next week.

$$
AReinhart