000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072137
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 93W north of 07N to far southeastern
Mexico, moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 10N to 16N between 91W and 100W. 

A tropical wave is near 130W from 03N to 18N moving west at 20 
to 25 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring 
from 10N to 14N between 128W and 132W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Nicaragua near
11N86W to 17N115W to beyond 10N140W. Moderate to strong
convection is occurring north of 05N and east of 87W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 
102W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted from 08N to 13N west of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore
waters while weak troughing extends over the Gulf of California.
This pattern supports light to gentle NW breezes and seas of 4-6
ft in NW swell across the water surrounding Baja California, and
seas of 1-3 ft in the central and northern Gulf. Moderate to 
fresh N winds are likely occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
with seas of 5-6 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft
seas in SW swell are occurring across the rest of the southern 
Mexico offshore waters. Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty 
winds and locally higher seas are occurring near Cabo San Lucas 
as well as off the coast of Oaxaca through the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a tightening surface pressure gradient between
high pressure in the Pacific and falling pressure in northern
Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas
in NW swell over the Baja California offshore waters Tue 
through the end of next week. Meanwhile, N winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec at times and seas will approach 8
ft into Tue as a tropical wave moves through the region. 

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
during the early to middle part of next week, near or just to the
south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions could support gradual development of 
this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer data depict moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough and seas of 4-7 
ft in S to SW swell. North of the trough, light to gentle winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Strong thunderstorms capable of 
producing gusty winds and locally higher seas are occurring off 
the coast of Nicaragua southeastward through NW Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 
moderate seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through
at least the middle of next week, and gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas will prevail farther north. Moderate to rough 
seas could develop off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador 
by Monday as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form off
the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 15N 
and as far east as 120W. This pattern supports gentle to moderate
NE winds north of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh winds
from 11N to 16N. Recent altimeter satellite data depict seas of 
5-7 ft in predominantly NW swell. South of the monsoon trough, 
fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are occurring W of 120W 
with seas of 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate SE to SW winds prevail
south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-7 ft within mixed S 
swell.
 
For the forecast, surface ridging will build north of 20N and
west of 120W, promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 4-6 ft through at least the middle of next week. Fresh 
to locally strong S to SW winds will continue south of the 
monsoon trough west of 120W into Sun morning with seas of 8-10 
ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas look to develop 
east of 120W as an area of low pressure forms off the coast of 
southern or southwestern Mexico in the early to middle part of 
next week.

$$
ADAMS