000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 93W north of 07N to far southeastern
Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 92W and 99W. 

A tropical wave is near 124W from 09N to 20N moving west at 
20 kt. No substantial convection is noted in association with 
this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Nicaragua near
11N86W to 17N115W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 08N to 13N west of 135W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 20N between 102W and
113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore 
waters. Locally moderate NW winds are occurring north of Punta 
Eugenia, with light to gentle NW winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
occurring across remaining portions of the Baja California 
offshore waters. Light to gentle breezes and seas to 3 ft are 
noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh N winds are likely 
occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5 to 6 ft. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas within mostly
SW swell are occurring across the rest of the southern Mexico 
offshore waters. Thunderstorms are occurring near Cabo Corrientes
as well as off the coast of Oaxaca through the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. These storms are capable of producing gusty winds 
and locally higher seas. 

For the forecast, as the pressure gradient increases from the 
ridge in the Pacific and lower pressure over the SW US, winds 
will increase to moderate to fresh over Baja California offshore
waters Tue through the end of next week. Seas will approach 8 ft
by midweek. Meanwhile, N winds will pulse across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec at times through Tue as a tropical wave approaches 
the region while a ridge develops across the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico. Seas will approach 8 ft early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
during the early to middle part of next week, near or just to the
south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions could support gradual development of 
this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail north of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate 
S to SW winds are likely occurring with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Seas 
are mostly within S to SW swell across these offshore waters. 
Strong thunderstorms are moving off the coast of Colombia, along 
with thunderstorms occurring across most of the Central American
coastline and offshore waters. These storms are capable of 
producing gusty winds and locally higher seas.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 
moderate seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through 
the middle of next week. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Moderate to 
rough seas will develop off the coasts of Guatemala and El 
Salvador by Monday as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 20N and
as far east as 120W. This is bringing gentle to moderate winds N
of the monsoon trough from 15N to 31N, and moderate to fresh NE
winds from 10N to 15N. Seas in this area range 5 to 7 ft within 
NW swell. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to locally strong 
winds are occurring W of 100W with seas of 6 to 10 ft. 
Otherwise, moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough with seas 6 to 7 ft within mixed southerly swell. 
 
For the forecast, surface ridging will build north of 20N and
west of 120W, promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will continue 
south of the monsoon trough west of 116W into Sun morning with
seas of 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas 
look to develop east of 110W as an area of low pressure forms in
the early to middle part of next week off the coast of southern 
or southwestern Mexico.

$$
ADAMS