000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070931
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 91W north of 08N to Guatemala, moving 
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted N of 07N between 90W and 95W. 

A tropical wave is near 120W from 09N to 20N moving west at 15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N 
between 115W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 17N115W to 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N 
between 89W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 18N between 115W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extends across the Baja California
offshore waters. This is supporting light to gentle NW winds with
seas 4 to 6 ft within NW swell. Light to gentle breezes and seas
to 3 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Fresh winds are
likely occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 5 ft. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas within mostly
SW swell are occurring across the rest of the souther Mexico
offshore waters. Thunderstorms are occurring from Cabo Corrientes
eastward to Oaxaca, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These
storms are capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher
seas. 

For the forecast, as the pressure gradient increases from the 
ridge in the Pacific and lower pressure over the SW US, winds 
will increase moderate to fresh over Baja California offshore 
waters Tue into Wed. Seas will approach 8 ft by midweek. 
Meanwhile, N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 
times through Tue as a tropical wave approaches the region while 
a ridge develops across the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. 
Seas will approach 8 ft early next week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
during the early to middle part of next week, near or just to the
south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions could support gradual development of 
this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system has a low 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell 
prevail north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough,
gentle moderate S to SW winds are likely occurring with seas of 
4 to 6 ft. Seas are mostly within S to SW swell across these 
offshore waters. Strong thunderstorms are moving off the coast 
of Colombia, along with thunderstorms occurring most of the
Central American coastline and offshore waters. These storms are
capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and moderate
seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through the middle
of next week. Farther north, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Moderate to 
rough seas will develop off the coasts of Guatemala and El
Salvador by Monday as a broad area of low pressure is forecast 
to form off the coast of southern Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the Pacific waters to near 20N and
as far east as 120W. This is bringing gentle to moderate winds N
of the monsoon trough to 31N. Seas in this area range 5 to 7 ft
within NW swell. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to locally strong
winds are occurring W of 100W with seas 7 to 10 ft. Otherwise, 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough 
with seas 6 to 7 ft within mixed southerly swell. 
 
For the forecast, surface ridging will build north of 20N and
west of 120W, promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will continue 
south of the monsoon trough west of 116W into Sun morning with
seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas look 
to develop east of 100W as an area of low pressure forms in the 
early to middle part of next week off the coast of southern or 
southwestern Mexico.

$$
AReinhart